By Zaw Tuseng

The Irrawaddy-Oct 6, 2026

If we view the last five years in Myanmar through the lens of a cost-benefit analysis, a picture emerges that is rarely discussed in public. Such an analysis would show that the winners of the February 2021 coup have in fact been the most strategically positioned ethnic armed organizations. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in the north, the Arakan Army (AA) in the west, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in the northeast, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) operating as a de facto autonomous entity, and various Chin, Karenni, Karen, Mon and southern Shan groups have consolidated territory, deepened administrative control, and expanded their political legitimacy and resources in ways that would have seemed improbable before February 2021. Read more at: https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-column/winners-and-losers-of-the-2021-coup-and-the-bamar-heartlands-awakening.html First published in The Irrawaddy