Mizzima-Apr 29
Over three years since the Myanmar February 2021 military coup that installed a military appointed State Administration Council (SAC) to govern Myanmar, and six months since the coordinated offensive of three Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs) representing the Kokang and Palaung ethnicities in northern Shan and the Arakan Army in Rakhine state grouped together as the Three Brotherhood Alliance (TBA) under Operation 1027, the Myanmar Army has lost more ground to EROs than at any time in its history, and the military government appears to be in a serious crisis that could signal its potential collapse. However, there are several factors inhibiting a total defeat of the Army or even a balkanisation of Myanmar, including a restraining Chinese hand; uneven progress of the armed opposition in ethnic areas and the Bamar heartland; lack of significant territorial control in the heartland that they could use to establish a seat for the National Unity Government (NUG); opposition restraint and military limitations; their own decision to preserve Burma’s unity and integrity through a federal democratic union reflected in a Federal Democratic Union Charter adopted in 2021; and the Myanmar Army’s counter-offensives and willingness to use force to prevent the inevitable.
Nevertheless, India must now prepare for all eventualities and work with new players and realities especially along its borders and in the heartland, but also further to be more active diplomatically to preserve a united Burma that is in its interests. Read more at:
