THAILAND

By Kavi Chongkittavorn*

The Bangkok Post

30 Jan 2018

Bluntly put, there are two reasons that propel Thailand to the front of the ASEAN queue in endorsing the US-led Indo-Pacific region concept. First of all, Thailand does not want the Indo-Pacific to concentrate on consultations between the US, India, Japan and Australia grouping — known as the Quadrilateral or Quad. Bangkok perceives it as an emerging broader Indo-Pacific community. Secondly, the region’s stability and prosperity will depend more on inclusive security cooperation both on land and at sea.

At the ASEAN-India summit last week in New Delhi, the leaders discussed maritime security cooperation at length in the Indo-Pacific region. In the Indian Ocean, as the name suggested, India has to take the lead. However, the substance was not mentioned in the Delhi Declaration, adopted late last week at the summit, due to a lack of consensus. Obviously, given the existing sensitivity and divergent views, over half the ASEAN members have been ambivalent toward the much hyped framework. Indeed, it is old wine in a new bottle.

In August 2007, Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, delivered a major foreign policy speech in the Indian Parliament about a confluence of the two seas, the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The notion of the Indo-Pacific region was presented for the first time as “a dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and of freedom and prosperity”. It was easily forgotten as Mr Abe resigned a month later. At the time, India’s former premier, Manmohan Singh, was focused on domestic issues.

Mr Abe said that this “broader Asia” concept has already brought down the geographical boundaries of yesteryear and that both India and Japan have the ability — and responsibility — to ensure the two seas become seas of freedom and of prosperity with more transparency. Since then, Mr Abe’s speech has laid the groundwork for foreign ministers from the four democracies, or the Quad, to meet informally on the sidelines of the annual ASEAN meeting. Upon his return as prime minister in 2012, he was able to jump start his Indo-Pacific idea.

At the time in 2007, the Thai government, under the leadership of Gen Surayud Chulanont, was quick to get the message and supported the idea at the beginning as Thailand is located between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and considers itself a land bridge between the two. Since then, in one form or another, the country has been promoting all forms of connectivity that would place it at the center of the emerging regional architecture.

When former Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Nataligawa elaborated on the Indo-Pacific region in Washington in 2013, he perceived ASEAN as a new pillar of stability with dynamic equilibrium. He also wanted to expand the ASEAN regional code of conduct, embodied in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, to include the major powers. However, his ASEAN colleagues were lukewarm to the idea.

Since then, the Indo-Pacific has gradually morphed into a more strategic framework. The “free and open” Indo-Pacific was added and has become the new narrative after US President Donald Trump first mentioned it at the Asia-Pacific Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Danang, Vietnam and the ASEAN Summit in Manila, the Philippines last November. It was clear then that the region would serve as a countervailing force to China’s rise and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s mammoth land and maritime connectivity plan, known collectively as the Belt and Road Initiative.

Early this month, Senior Policy Adviser to the US Secretary of State Brian Hook was the first senior American official to elaborate on what Washington has in mind about the Indo-Pacific region. To the US, the region is home to over 3 billion people with thriving and dynamic economics as well as the focal point of the world’s energy and trade routes. With its five treaty allies in the region, the US wants to work with allies and friends to ensure the Indo-Pacific remains “a place of peace, stability and growing prosperity”.

Mr Hook argued that given the present strategic landscape in the region, sustained US leadership is needed to uphold the sovereignty of states and push back against actions that undermine a fair and open rule-based order. He also mentioned the latest US National Security Strategy, which highlights the threats from China and Russia, as a barometer of US commitment to the region’s security. After Mr Trump’s trip to Asia last November, the Quad has become more visible in promoting shared principles and a rules-based order in the region.

During his recent bilateral meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said that Thailand is pursing a five rivers concept — the linkage between the region’s Ganges, Brahmaputra, Chao Phraya, Irrawaddy and Mekong Rivers — as the future connectivity networks to enhance and deepen cooperation within the Indo-Pacific Community.

Thailand welcomes India’s new emphasis on the so-called three C’s — commerce, connectivity and culture — in its Act East Policy. In coming years, as co-host of the annual Cobra Gold military exercise, Thailand will push India for broader participation. An India that takes part actively in the region’s largest military exercise will go a long way to bolster the region’s security. As ASEAN chair next year, Thailand will have a special role to play in the Indo-Pacific scheme of things including other projects related to sustainable development and regional land and sea connectivity. The country needs stability to ensure the success of an eventful 2019. A decade ago, the aborted ASEAN summit in Pattaya, due to disruption by political unrest, and its repercussions remain fresh and continue to haunt the host.

It is an open secret that Bangkok will not turn the Indo-Pacific into a bulwark against China or Russia. That helps explain why the government is pushing for closer cooperation with India and for the completion of the Trilateral Highway linking South and Southeast Asia — the first indicator that Thailand will be a physical land bridge between the two great oceans. It is still the work in progress.

*Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.

(First published in Bangkok Post – https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1404338/locating-thailand-in-the-indo-pacific-region)