Figuring Out a Trump-led USA

Posted by AsiaViews | Nov 13, 2017 | 0 |

To many in Asia, the United States’ inward turn is alarming. Under President Donald J. Trump, the US seems to be pursuing policies undermining the global liberal order. In the president’s zero-sum thinking, the international order must no longer be useful now that countries other than the US are benefitting more from it. Needless to say, unilateral changes to an international order that continues to predicate Asia’s economic rise can only threaten national interests across the region.

In response, to no one’s surprise, popular opinion in Asia has soured as leadership in the US changed hands. As the Pew Research Center found, confidence that the US under Trump, in contrast to under Barack Obama, would do the ‘right thing’ internationally has dropped precipitously in Japan (-54%), South Korea (-71%), Vietnam (-13%), and the Philippines (-25%). Add China to the list, and you have all the countries Trump has visited in the past two weeks.

However, Southeast Asia remains ready to engage the US, as it always has. The main problem in US-Southeast Asia relations is the divergence between rhetoric and substantive progress. Under President Trump, the United States is sending out confusing and conflicting messages: What is ‘fairness’ in terms of trade balance? Must a country sustain a prolonged trade deficit just to stay in the good graces of the US? Will the US honor its commitments? Will the US be there in Southeast Asia’s hour of need?

US presence at this year’s APEC and ASEAN summits in Danang and Manila, respectively, is a good start but what really matters is, as our first Spotlight opinion article puts it, economic ‘boots on the ground’. China comes up with the Belt and Road Initiative to tie the region closer to it; the US steps back from Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. President Trump’s administration says it seeks a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’, but how does the US plan to bring it about? President Obama, too, claimed a ‘pivot to Asia’ but US policy attention rarely budged from the Middle East in reality. What’s different now?

The reserves of good will that the US keeps in Asia are running low. As our second Spotlight opinion articles points out, even Filipinos, traditionally among the most pro-American in Southeast Asia, have a list of issues they want addressed, as President Trump attends the ASEAN summit in Manila this week. It will take more than a US presidential visit to East Asia to refill those reserves of good will.

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POINTS TO PONDER

EXTRICATING NDONESIAN CHILDREN FROM ISIS INFLUENCE ABROAD

Indonesia urgently needs to revisit the possibility of repatriating the neediest of its young citizens stranded abroad, whose families had earlier joined ISIS. Most of these children are in camps in northern Syria but there are also small numbers in the Philippines, Afghanistan and Iraq. “Extricating Indonesian Children from ISIS Influence Abroad”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) argues that the government could begin by bringing back small groups of unaccompanied children under ten years of age, who pose minimal security risk and are most vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in the camps.“The problem is that health and security conditions are worsening by the day in the Syrian camps, and the children are growing older,” says Dyah Kartika, IPAC analyst. “They need access to schools, a nurturing environment, and medical attention. If the government waits too long, the children will be further exposed to ISIS ideology.” The new report examines a 2019 list of Indonesians in camps and prisons run by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Indonesian government has been trying to verify their citizenship, but with pseudonyms, misspellings and bad transliterations, it is a daunting task. At the time the data was collected, between March and June 2019, there were 555 Indonesians in SDF camps and prisons, including 367 children. Among the children, approximately 277 were under the age of ten and 34 were unaccompanied. In June 2021, there are fewer than ten children who are both unaccompanied and under the age of ten that could be prioritized for return. Bringing back children of ISIS families is no easy task. The report analyses the main challenges faced by the Indonesian government. These include definitional issues, bureaucratic competition, the difficulty of verifying nationality, evaluating the toll of exposure to conflict, assessing security risk, and finding relatives or others willing to provide care once the children are returned. In addition, COVID has meant stringent restrictions on travel, placing further obstacles in the way of repatriation. There are several models for rehabilitation of children exposed to violent extremism in Indonesia that could be modified to accommodate the needs of children repatriated from abroad. The report examines these models and argues that the government does not need to have every detail of rehabilitation programs in place before it starts extricating children from ISIS influence. It can start by bringing back the most vulnerable children and then modify programs as needed.

“It’s important that the government see these children as victims” says Dyah. “They deserve a chance to be children again.”

Figuring Out a Trump-led USA