World Bank: Laos’ Economic Growth Lower than Expected

Posted by AsiaViews | Oct 16, 2017 | 0 |

CONTRA

The World Bank (WB) has predicted that Lao economic growth will be slightly lower than the Lao government and Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts.

In its October 2017 edition of the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update report released on Wednesday, the WB forecast Lao gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 6.7 and 6.6 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively. But the Lao government’s reports suggested that the country’s GDP would grow by at least 6.83 percent in 2017 with a target to pursue 7 percent growth in 2018 – some 0.13 and 0.4 percent higher than the WB’s forecasts.

Meanwhile, the ADB’s projection revealed on September 29 that Lao GDP would grow by 6.9 percent and 7 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively, some 0.2 and 0.4 percent higher than the World Bank’s forecast.

The World Bank’s forecast of moderate growth for 2017 was justified by several main factors including the decline in tourist arrivals and stronger controls over government spending amid high-level public debt.

The World Bank’s forecast that Lao GDP growth would reach just 6.6 percent next year came as the government admitted that budget constraints had become a challenge in achieving 7 percent growth for 2018 as approved by the National Assembly.

To attain 7 percent growth, some 42,145 billion kip needed to be injected into the economy, Minister of Planning and Investment Dr Souphanh Keomixay told a recent meeting between government cabinet members, provincial governors and the Vientiane Mayor.

Of this amount, normal state investment must reach 3,800 billion kip, up by 1,000 billion kip compared to 2017.

But the Ministry of Finance said only 2,800 billion kip – the same amount as this year – could be sourced amid budget constraints caused by revenue shortfalls.

If proposed state investment in infrastructure was not increased next year, GDP growth might not achieve 7 percent, Dr Souphanh said. Sourced from Vientianne Times.

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EXTRICATING NDONESIAN CHILDREN FROM ISIS INFLUENCE ABROAD

Indonesia urgently needs to revisit the possibility of repatriating the neediest of its young citizens stranded abroad, whose families had earlier joined ISIS. Most of these children are in camps in northern Syria but there are also small numbers in the Philippines, Afghanistan and Iraq. “Extricating Indonesian Children from ISIS Influence Abroad”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) argues that the government could begin by bringing back small groups of unaccompanied children under ten years of age, who pose minimal security risk and are most vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in the camps.“The problem is that health and security conditions are worsening by the day in the Syrian camps, and the children are growing older,” says Dyah Kartika, IPAC analyst. “They need access to schools, a nurturing environment, and medical attention. If the government waits too long, the children will be further exposed to ISIS ideology.” The new report examines a 2019 list of Indonesians in camps and prisons run by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Indonesian government has been trying to verify their citizenship, but with pseudonyms, misspellings and bad transliterations, it is a daunting task. At the time the data was collected, between March and June 2019, there were 555 Indonesians in SDF camps and prisons, including 367 children. Among the children, approximately 277 were under the age of ten and 34 were unaccompanied. In June 2021, there are fewer than ten children who are both unaccompanied and under the age of ten that could be prioritized for return. Bringing back children of ISIS families is no easy task. The report analyses the main challenges faced by the Indonesian government. These include definitional issues, bureaucratic competition, the difficulty of verifying nationality, evaluating the toll of exposure to conflict, assessing security risk, and finding relatives or others willing to provide care once the children are returned. In addition, COVID has meant stringent restrictions on travel, placing further obstacles in the way of repatriation. There are several models for rehabilitation of children exposed to violent extremism in Indonesia that could be modified to accommodate the needs of children repatriated from abroad. The report examines these models and argues that the government does not need to have every detail of rehabilitation programs in place before it starts extricating children from ISIS influence. It can start by bringing back the most vulnerable children and then modify programs as needed.

“It’s important that the government see these children as victims” says Dyah. “They deserve a chance to be children again.”

World Bank: Laos’ Economic Growth Lower than Expected