VOTING FOR CONTINUITY OVER CHANGE

Posted by Asia Views | Feb 26, 2024 | 0 |

To describe the February 14 general elections in Indonesia as a Valentine Day’s Massacre would be an over-statement. Yet early results clearly showed a humiliating thrashing by the Prabowo-Gibran team (close to 60 percent of total votes) over the other two contenders: Anies-Muhaimin (24.5 percent) and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud (19.5 percent), whose PDIP party once dominated national politics. To be sure, there have been charges of massive fraud and violations from the day campaigning began. And as in previous elections, these charges will be submitted by the losing parties to the authorities as a plausible cause for a recount of the votes. But it hasn’t happened and most likely will not happen as the new president and vice-president-elect cruise their way towards final victory. For Prabowo, this is a particularly sweet win, given his previous two failed attempts in 2014 and 2019. What did he do right this time around that finally propelled him to the top?

Clearly, the backing of the incumbent and popular President Jokowi would be one important factor. But many now realize that the choice of Jokowi’s son Gibran as Prabowo’s running mate clinched it all, despite the loud public criticism on the questionable methods of how Gibran — who is below the minimum age to qualify – managed to run. With hundreds of thousands of first-time voters among the 200 million going to the polls, the youthful-looking Gibran was seen to represent the younger generation and somehow convinced them this was the ticket to go for, thanks to the skillful use of social media portraying Gibran as the way of the future. Analysts say the Prabowo-Gibran win would not have been so massive without the outright support of government officials and members of the police and defense forces. Critics immediately cried foul play, pointing to the violation of the electoral laws. But what should also be taken into account are the choices offered to voters: a president who promises continuity or one who opts for change. Many of the voters cited President Jokowi’s programs which improved the economy, the establishment of a national health program and building much-needed infrastructure. Prabowo’s promise to provide meals in all schools resonated with a major segment of our society. Dinner over democracy.

What follows will be the winning party’s political scramble to form a coalition that will ensure its new government will encounter the least possible opposition in parliament. Right after voting day, incumbent President Joko Widodo held an hour-long meeting with the chairman of the NasDem party which supported ex-Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who emerged as the runner-up. But forming a strong coalition will not be easy, given that the PDIP – whose candidate came last in the presidential race — won the most seats in this year’s election as it did in the previous one. Failing to garner the executive seat of power, the PDIP – led by the indomitable party matriarch Megawati Sukarnoputri – now seems poised to gather as many supporting parties to form an alliance that could become a strong opposition in parliament and make life difficult for the government of President-elect Prabowo Subianto. The political contest is far from over.

Yuli Ismartono

AsiaViews Editor

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EXTRICATING NDONESIAN CHILDREN FROM ISIS INFLUENCE ABROAD

Indonesia urgently needs to revisit the possibility of repatriating the neediest of its young citizens stranded abroad, whose families had earlier joined ISIS. Most of these children are in camps in northern Syria but there are also small numbers in the Philippines, Afghanistan and Iraq. “Extricating Indonesian Children from ISIS Influence Abroad”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) argues that the government could begin by bringing back small groups of unaccompanied children under ten years of age, who pose minimal security risk and are most vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in the camps.“The problem is that health and security conditions are worsening by the day in the Syrian camps, and the children are growing older,” says Dyah Kartika, IPAC analyst. “They need access to schools, a nurturing environment, and medical attention. If the government waits too long, the children will be further exposed to ISIS ideology.” The new report examines a 2019 list of Indonesians in camps and prisons run by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Indonesian government has been trying to verify their citizenship, but with pseudonyms, misspellings and bad transliterations, it is a daunting task. At the time the data was collected, between March and June 2019, there were 555 Indonesians in SDF camps and prisons, including 367 children. Among the children, approximately 277 were under the age of ten and 34 were unaccompanied. In June 2021, there are fewer than ten children who are both unaccompanied and under the age of ten that could be prioritized for return. Bringing back children of ISIS families is no easy task. The report analyses the main challenges faced by the Indonesian government. These include definitional issues, bureaucratic competition, the difficulty of verifying nationality, evaluating the toll of exposure to conflict, assessing security risk, and finding relatives or others willing to provide care once the children are returned. In addition, COVID has meant stringent restrictions on travel, placing further obstacles in the way of repatriation. There are several models for rehabilitation of children exposed to violent extremism in Indonesia that could be modified to accommodate the needs of children repatriated from abroad. The report examines these models and argues that the government does not need to have every detail of rehabilitation programs in place before it starts extricating children from ISIS influence. It can start by bringing back the most vulnerable children and then modify programs as needed.

“It’s important that the government see these children as victims” says Dyah. “They deserve a chance to be children again.”

VOTING FOR CONTINUITY OVER CHANGE