THAILAND
By Atiya Achakulwisut*
The Bangkok Post
30 Jan 2018
‘What’s the fuss about a delay of just 90 days?” government spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd fretted as the military regime faced criticism over yet another national poll delay.
He may be right. Why should anybody worry when the regime, which stands to lose the most, is not perturbed?
Lt Gen Sansern could be sincerely bewildered. What is the big deal about the poll being postponed again when it has been pushed back so many times in the past? Why are people rattled by another hiccup after such a long string of them?
It’s true, this latest postponement appears to be a blatant breach of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s earlier promise that an election would be held in November this year. The premier was specific when he made the statement, not just to Thai people but to members of the international community.
Now that it can’t be done, what can the PM do? Nothing, it seems. Despite him being the head of the government and military regime, plus the architect of the so-called roadmap to democracy, Gen Prayut said Monday it’s not up to him to decide when the poll will be held.
He also couldn’t guarantee if the latest delay would be the last. He said he has never made any promise except to do his job according to the “roadmap”.
On the one hand, the PM is showing a practical side befitting his newly declared status as a politician who used to be a military man. Not everything can be done precisely according to schedule, let alone a matter as complex as a general election and a peaceful return to democracy. People should understand that.
On the other hand, there is no getting around Gen Prayut’s failure to keep his word.
It’s probably just another delay, another broken promise or another hitch due to an unforeseeable circumstance to him, but all these have chipped away at what he needs most in the leadership position — public trust. It also concerns the draining confidence that foreign countries and investors have in Thailand, its economy and its future.
That is why people, not just Thais but foreign leaders, made a fuss about the poll delay. In case Lt Gen Sansern really is clueless, it’s not the length of the deferral that matters. It’s your trustworthiness.
What will the military regime gain from the latest push-back? Nothing but time. And time is not necessarily on the top brass’s side. With an election to be held possibly in February 2019, the regime will have another full year to prepare the ground for whatever political landscape it wants in place following the poll.
Gen Prayut has unveiled what sounds like a campaign platform of promoting “Thai-ism”. But what exactly is this concept which the PM seems to have combined with his idea of a desirable democracy? Thai-ism is not populism even though it is based on what people truly want, the PM said. But people should only want what is good, morally and ethically. Thai-ism is not equal to nationalism either. It’s more of a reform based on Thai characteristics that does not dismiss international values, he added.
The PM has set up a national steering committee to drive a sustainable Thai-ism campaign nationwide, down to the tambon level. Considering how obscure the concept is, and how contrary to real policies, such as cheap healthcare or farm price guarantees, the regime needs the extra time to convince people to vote for parties that offer their support.
The extra few months could also allow the regime’s economic projects to start bearing fruit. This will boost the chances of Gen Prayut returning to the top job as an outsider PM, if there is such a plan.
But time could prove to be a liability for a regime that is suffering from a decline in popularity. No matter how the “Rolex General” affair ends, the scandal has damaged not just Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon but also Gen Prayut, who defended him, and the National Anti-Corruption Commission which has been too slow to act on the case.
The PM could use the time he has in power to drive home his Thai-ism campaign and hope it will restore his popularity. He may have forgotten, however, that a morality drive may not play so well over a record of broken promises.
With the damage from “Watchgate” still spreading, what can Gen Prayut preach about morality and corruption? In defending the poll delay, he dared the public to choose between following him and his roadmap or returning to earlier political conflicts.
Do we have a choice?
*Atiya Achakulwisut is a columnist with the Bangkok Post.
(First published in Bangkok Post – https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1404342/regime-can-buy-time-but-not-trust )
