By Yang Razali Kassim*
Today
11 Dec 2017
The dominant narrative emerging from the much-anticipated United Malays National Organization general assembly last week was that Malaysia’s ruling party must prepare for and do well in a do-or-die general election due by August 2018, but widely expected now in the first quarter.
Umno president and Prime Minister Najib Razak called on delegates to “win big” at the upcoming “mother of all elections”, while his deputy Ahmad Zahid Hamidi called on the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition led by Umno to also snatch back the two-thirds supermajority it first lost in 2008 and failed to recover in 2013.
Is this a reflection of Umno’s growing confidence to retain power? Or is it chest-thumping to whip up the morale of the party that has seen in recent years a series shocks and setbacks, internally and nationally?
Amidst the current flux in politics, two significant views are emerging. The first is that Umno is indeed recovering and consolidating itself following the outbreak of the 1MDB scandal in 2015. The serious knock-on effects on BN are obvious. After all the man in the eye of the storm is Mr Najib.
Arising from the crisis, Umno has split yet again, with the breakaway Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, also known as Bersatu, led by former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad.
Bersatu counts among its ranks a former deputy prime minister, Muhyiddin Yassin, who was sacked for questioning Mr Najib on 1MDB and Mukhriz Mahathir, former chief minister of a key Malay belt state, Kedah.
More fundamentally, the Umno split – the fifth in its 71-year history – has also altered the national political landscape, with Bersatu entering into an unprecedented alliance with the opposition Pakatan Harapan coalition, spiritually led by the jailed Anwar Ibrahim, a former deputy premier and Umno Number 2 himself.
The net effect is the unthinkable reconciliation between allies-turned-foes Dr Mahathir and Mr Anwar, and the convergence of one former premier, two former deputy premiers and at least one former chief minister in common opposition to Mr Najib.
It is unprecedented for Malaysians to see so many high-level former Umno leaders joining hands against a sitting prime minister, a point not missed at the Umno assembly, with party leaders and delegates taking turns to denounce Dr Mahathir.
Despite the split in Umno, the expanding opposition alliance and the international spillover of the 1MDB scandal, Mr Najib’s position in Umno seems secure for now. Such is the power of incumbency.
One notable outcome of the Umno general assembly was the passing of a resolution for the positions of Mr Najib and Mr Zahid in the party to be uncontested in the party election next year, thus securing the positions of both for at least another term.
The second view is that Mr Najib is on much shakier ground than he would admit and that the coming 14th general election will indeed be a “do-or-die” electoral battle whose outcome will be critical for his political survival.
If BN wins again, it could well mean the breakup of the PH opposition, given its current state of fragile cohesion; while Mr Najib will be confirmed as the most wily sitting prime minister since Dr Mahathir.
But if for some reason, voters grows tired of perceived political shenanigans and chose to remain silent until they decide to vote against Umno and BN, then Mr Najib will not only be out of power; he could end up in deep trouble. The stakes are therefore very high for him.
While Umno leaders have touted the importance of winning back the two-thirds majority, the reality is that many observers are sceptical this will happen. Even Umno leaders have talked about this super-majority goal with some guard.
Mr Zahid said it is not enough to rely on the strengths of Umno and BN for the goal to be achieved – This was further stressed by Mr Najib who spoke about the critical need to win over the third group of “persuadable voters” that is “significant to BN” – the “fence sitters”. In other words, the coming battle may well be settled by the middle ground.
What if the Opposition Wins?
There are at least two key sources of disgruntlement against the Umno-led ruling coalition: rising cost of living which some Umno leaders are in denial of; and issues of ethics and governance.
There are undercurrents of unhappiness among the political and business elites as well as ordinary voters who may well form the bulk of fence-sitters.
Overall, many Malaysians at this point are rather resigned to more of the same. They are so used to the political longevity and entrenched power of Umno, and by extension BN, that they may not want to rock the boat.
They may want the opposition to take over but are afraid of the unknown. Many therefore may either spoil their vote, or stay at home and not face an excruciating dilemma at the ballot box.
This may not be the best outcome for Malaysian politics. But for those who are deeply troubled by what they perceive as a growing rot within the system, a regime change would not be as scary as it seems.
If the alternative government delivers, it would be voted back to power. If it fails, voters can bring Umno and BN back to rule. A stint out of power will not be bad for Umno’s soul; it could lead to serious introspection and much needed rejuvenation.
This model of politics is not new. There have been long-serving political parties that have been voted out but came back to govern better.
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party is one example. Other examples of long-serving parties which have been dethroned but play influential oppositionist roles are Indonesia’s Golkar, Taiwan’s Kuomintang and India’s Congress.
Is this the crossroads that Mr Najib is talking about?
*Yang Razali Kassim is a Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.
(http://www.todayonline.com/commentary/will-upcoming-election-mark-new-crossroad-malaysian-politics)
