By Kavi Chongkittavorn*
Myanmar Times
Oct 23, 2017
As the administration of United States President Donald Trump enters its tenth month, one of the most frequently asked questions is whether he will try to take down his predecessor’s legacy in South East Asia. The answer is both no, and yes.
The negative answer comes first because there are no indications yet that Mr Trump is doing this with the countries in the region. What he has done so far is to provide a new sense of rejuvenation and trust individually to allies and friends of the US. Since he is a transactional president, he has been successful in dealing with Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia.
These countries are essentially the security first responders for core American interests in the region. Among them, there are two military allies, two members of the Five Power Defence Arrangements (multi-lateral agreements between the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia and Singapore), and two new strategic partners. While each country serves specific strategic interests in mainland and maritime South East Asia, their combined assets have a singular purpose – to preserve and enhance US power in the region.
It is the first time since the end of World War II that the preeminent position of the US has been challenged to its core. Mr Trump understands this downward trend and his security team is doing what it can to remedy this dire situation.
As Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong arrives in Washington DC today, Mr Trump is completing his South East Asian policy, including preparations for next month’s Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting in Vietnam and East Asia Summit in the Philippines.
Since May, Mr Trump has met with leaders from Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. In May, Vice President Mike Pence stopped over in Jakarta and met with Indonesian President Joko Widodo. Early next month, Mr Trump will meet with all 10 ASEAN members for the first time at the East Asia Summit and US-ASEAN summit in the Philippines.
Of the six countries, Singapore is the United States’ most important all-weather friend in South East Asia, given its willingness to accommodate US strategic interests without being a treaty ally. Mr Lee’s visit today will be closely scrutinized because it comes hot on the heels of his trip last month to China, where, after brief diplomatic spats in recent years, Singapore and China struck a new rapport and understanding in their 27-year-old ties.
Mr Lee’s visit will wrap up Mr Trump’s strategic engagement with key South East Asian countries. Recent Washington visits by Malaysian and Thai leaders were successful, and their joint statements reflected strong commitments to US trade and security interests. Stronger and healthier relations with these two countries will benefit long-term US interests in an age of a rising China.
Thailand and Malaysia also have closer ties with China. Although they employ hedging strategies against the major powers, there are some differences. Kuala Lumpur is more active in projecting its strategic values than Bangkok, which is rather passive.
That helped explain why Thailand’s relations with the US have been frozen for the past three years until the White House decided on a new path. Thai decision-makers responded well to goodwill gestures but not to condescending ones.
Kuala Lumpur is often steps ahead of Bangkok’s hyper-cautious moves. For instance, in trade and human trafficking, Malaysia lobbied hard with sustained and effective campaigns in Congress as well as joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal to avoid US punishment.
In the case of North Korea, Malaysia is willing to go beyond the UN resolutions and ASEAN-agreed positions and actions, and is planning to shut down its North Korean embassy.
Bangkok, even as one of the region’s oldest allies of the US, remains reserved, both on trade and US-led sanctions against North Korea, as the latest joint statement issued on October 2 showed.
For the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte will have a tete-a-tete with Mr Trump at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Danang, Vietnam, in November and then at Clark Air Base in the Philippines, but he will not visit Washington in the near future.
Despite Mr Duterte’s fierce reply to US criticism of his anti-drug campaign, US-Philippines relations are rock solid. As a traditional ally and former colonizer, the US has a soft spot for the Philippines, and what emerges from the next month’s encounter will only reinforce and strengthen bilateral ties.
Most interesting is how Mr Trump places Vietnam in the overall scheme of relations in the region.
Under the Obama administration, the arms sanctions in place for over five decades were lifted, effectively transforming Vietnam into one of the United States’ leading comprehensive strategic partners in the region. Now, Vietnam is a major trading partner and a free-trade advocate.
During his May visit to the White House, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc pledged a commercial deal with the US worth US$8 billion. On maritime security, their joint statement stressed the importance of refraining from the militarization of disputed areas in the South China Sea.
Finally, we come to US-Indonesia relations. As the world’s third-largest democracy, Indonesia’s political stature has increased. In 2015, their ties were upgraded to a strategic partnership in an effort to promote Indonesia’s growing international role.
Using personal diplomacy and a bilateral approach, Mr Trump has provided assurances and security commitments, each uniquely designed, to all six key ASEAN members, which will serve to balance China’s rising influence.
For the second answer regarding Mr Trump’s effort to erase Barack Obama’s legacy, he could do so by imposing sanctions on Myanmar. Under Mr Obama, US-Myanmar relations were normalized and prospered, which was widely noted and considered one of his diplomatic triumphs.
In past months, Mr Trump has dealt serious blows to Mr Obama’s achievements in free trade, denuclearization of Iran, and climate change, among others.
It remains to be seen how Mr Trump will approach Mr Obama’s legacy in South East Asia when he visits Danang and Clark Air Base in November. At both meetings, Mr Obama’s imprint still looms large.
Kavi Chongkittavorn in editor-in-chief of The Myanmar Times.
(https://www.mmtimes.com/news/will-trump-undo-obamas-legacy-south-east-asia.html)
