By David Dapice

East Asia Forum-Aug 20, 2025

Vietnam’s fertility rate has been below the replacement level since 2015, giving it a narrow window to reach high-income status before its labor force begins to decline. While projected to benefit from ‘demographic momentum’, persistent structural weaknesses and the limited effectiveness of pro-natalist policies elsewhere indicate that fertility rates will pose a challenge to future growth. Read more at: https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/08/20/vietnams-demographic-decline-narrows-development-pathway/ First published in East Asia Forum