A US RETURN TO THE TPP MUST NOT WEAKEN DEAL.

Posted by AsiaViews | Apr 23, 2018 | 0 |

JAPAN

Japan Times-Apr 17

U.S. President Donald Trump is reconsidering membership in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. If he follows through, it would constitute the most significant policy reversal since he took office. As welcome as this shift is, it is by no means guaranteed: Not only must Trump decide to go through with the membership bid, but the 11 signatories, which only recently agreed on a revised text, must then reopen the treaty for negotiations with Washington. U.S. membership in the TPP — now the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) — is much desired but not at the price of a weakened and diluted deal.

For Trump, no agreement better symbolized U.S. failure in trade policy than the TPP. In the 2016 campaign he excoriated President Barack Obama for negotiating the deal, at one point tweeting “The Trans-Pacific Partnership is another disaster done and pushed by special interests who want to rape our country. …” One of the first executive orders he signed as president withdrew the United States from the agreement.

Yet rather than tear up the deal, the remaining 11 countries — Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam — driven in no small part by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, renegotiated the draft, removing many of the U.S. demands. That revised treaty was agreed and will go into effect when it is ratified by six of the signatories. In its current state, the CPTPP countries represent about 500 million people, and account for more than 13 percent of the global economy with a total GDP of $10 trillion. U.S. membership would boost that to 40 percent of global GDP, topping $30 trillion.

At this point, Trump’s intentions are not clear. He and his economic team have hinted for months of a change in thinking and last week, he reportedly tasked U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow to study the prospects of U.S. membership. That is not, as some have said, a commitment to rejoin negotiations. Most importantly, Trump conditioned U.S. membership on a “substantially better” deal than the one Obama had.

The other 11 governments want the U.S. to return to the fold. It would significantly expand the market access afforded by membership and it would help balance Chinese economic influence in the region. Finance Minister Taro Aso spoke for many of the signatories when he remarked that “if it’s true, I would welcome it,” as did Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who said it would be “great” to have the U.S. back.

At the same time, however, there is no appetite for renegotiating terms of the deal. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga likened it to “glasswork,” explaining that it is extremely difficult to take out one part and renegotiate.” Australian Trade Minister Steven Ciobo was more blunt: “We’ve got a deal. … I can’t see that all being thrown open to appease the United States.”

In fact, the CPTPP 11 “suspended” many of the provisions that were of greatest concern to the U.S., such as strengthening intellectual property protection for pharmaceutical products, extending the length of copyrights, minimum sourcing requirements for automobiles and other vehicles, and the opening of agriculture markets for products such as rice, an especially sore point for Japan. In theory, however, Trump’s insistence on improving the terms of the agreement means that merely taking the previously negotiated terms off the shelf is not an option.

The U.S. cannot formally begin negotiations until the agreement goes into effect, which is likely to be next year. That will be after U.S. midterm elections, which means that Trump cannot use the prospect of membership and new markets to appease voters from farm country who are being hurt by trade fights that the president has picked with China and other partners. If those same elections give Democrats control of the Senate, then the prospects of passing a Trump-approved renegotiated trade agreement will sink even further. The fact that Trump may need a deal to help his supporters increases the leverage of the CPTPP 11 in negotiations, while the prospect of a rejection by the Senate will make those same governments wary of any concessions.

Still, Trump’s seeming readiness to reconsider CPTPP will gladden the hearts of Japanese politicians and bureaucrats. It validates Abe’s determination to keep the deal alive and shows him to be a man of vision. It should help parry U.S. efforts to force Japan into talks for a bilateral free trade agreement. But, most importantly, U.S. membership will encourage other countries to join the CPTPP, helping to transform it into a truly significant trade agreement — one that sets meaningful rules for economic integration and regional order.

(first published in Japan Times – https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/04/18/editorials/build-momentum-japan-china-talks/#.Wth5kMgxXEY)

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EXTRICATING NDONESIAN CHILDREN FROM ISIS INFLUENCE ABROAD

Indonesia urgently needs to revisit the possibility of repatriating the neediest of its young citizens stranded abroad, whose families had earlier joined ISIS. Most of these children are in camps in northern Syria but there are also small numbers in the Philippines, Afghanistan and Iraq. “Extricating Indonesian Children from ISIS Influence Abroad”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) argues that the government could begin by bringing back small groups of unaccompanied children under ten years of age, who pose minimal security risk and are most vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in the camps.“The problem is that health and security conditions are worsening by the day in the Syrian camps, and the children are growing older,” says Dyah Kartika, IPAC analyst. “They need access to schools, a nurturing environment, and medical attention. If the government waits too long, the children will be further exposed to ISIS ideology.” The new report examines a 2019 list of Indonesians in camps and prisons run by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Indonesian government has been trying to verify their citizenship, but with pseudonyms, misspellings and bad transliterations, it is a daunting task. At the time the data was collected, between March and June 2019, there were 555 Indonesians in SDF camps and prisons, including 367 children. Among the children, approximately 277 were under the age of ten and 34 were unaccompanied. In June 2021, there are fewer than ten children who are both unaccompanied and under the age of ten that could be prioritized for return. Bringing back children of ISIS families is no easy task. The report analyses the main challenges faced by the Indonesian government. These include definitional issues, bureaucratic competition, the difficulty of verifying nationality, evaluating the toll of exposure to conflict, assessing security risk, and finding relatives or others willing to provide care once the children are returned. In addition, COVID has meant stringent restrictions on travel, placing further obstacles in the way of repatriation. There are several models for rehabilitation of children exposed to violent extremism in Indonesia that could be modified to accommodate the needs of children repatriated from abroad. The report examines these models and argues that the government does not need to have every detail of rehabilitation programs in place before it starts extricating children from ISIS influence. It can start by bringing back the most vulnerable children and then modify programs as needed.

“It’s important that the government see these children as victims” says Dyah. “They deserve a chance to be children again.”

A US RETURN TO THE TPP MUST NOT WEAKEN DEAL.