NationThailand-Mar 4
War erupted after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, triggering retaliation that spread across the Middle East and pushing global geopolitics into a new point of fragility. A prolonged conflict would not only rattle energy markets and gold prices, but also intensify global trade volatility for Thailand. The shock could transmit through oil prices, inflation, transport costs and exports, squeezing the economy and households’ cost of living if the war does not subside easily. Associate Professor Dr Aat Pisanwanich, an independent academic and specialist in international and ASEAN economics, told Thansettakij that the US–Israel conflict with Iran has escalated into a full-scale war after Iran retaliated by attacking US bases in 11 countries, including some economic areas. This week, he said, is a “make-or-break” moment that will determine whether the war ends quickly or becomes protracted and could even lead to political change in Iran. Thailand exports to 15 Middle Eastern countries, worth 400 billion baht in 2025 — about 4% of total exports — with 70% concentrated in the GCC group. If shipping routes or airlines are disrupted for two months, based on average exports of 33 billion baht per month, the damage could reach 60 billion baht. The baht could become volatile in line with capital flows, while oil costs could push domestic retail fuel prices to as high as 80 baht per liter, further worsening the cost of living. He proposed that the government set up a war room to closely manage energy prices and the cost of living, while preparing measures to support exporters and proactively manage geopolitical risk — “because this is now the number one risk factor, overtaking the trade war.” Read more at: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/economy/40063267
