Posted by Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict-7 Sept 2020
The issue of recidivism among those convicted of terrorism in Indonesia needs a closer look as well over 100 of these prisoners are being released each year. Most will not commit a second offence: the recidivism rate hovers around 10-11 per cent, depending on the definition used. If factors involved in recidivism can be identified, however, more targeted post-release programs might reduce that rate further.
Indonesia needs to look more closely at the patterns of recidivism among terrorism offenders, because many are due for release in the next 18 months. Since it passed a strengthened counter-terrorism law after the May 2018 Surabaya bombings, Indonesia has allowed the police to make “preventive strikes” against men and women suspected of being members of extremist organizations. Hundreds have been arrested since, including for non-violent roles – among them hiding fugitives, withholding information, purchasing food supplies, buying airplane tickets and attending meetings. Many have received short sentences of two to three years. This means the prisons have become even more of a revolving door for convicted terrorists than they have been in the past, with individuals released after minimal in-prison counselling programs and with almost no capacity on the part of the government for sustained post-release monitoring. In 2021, more than 150 of these prisoners will be freed. Most will not commit a second terrorism offence or related crime after release, but the challenge is to understand the factors that could tempt individuals to re-engage with extremist organizations and the program interventions that might dissuade them. This report examines the cases of 94 repeat offenders among a total of 825 men and women convicted of terrorism and released between 2002 and May 2020. Most were re-arrested after committing a second terrorist crime, but we have also included those who joined ISIS in Syria after their release and a few others who might not fit a strict definition of recidivism but who clearly re-engaged with violent extremism. The report suggests that several factors are associated with recidivism: a high level of radicalism in prison, a militant spouse or other close family member who is a close contact after release; and the availability of a powerful ideological concept that carries with it the possibility of collective physical action. Three of these concepts have been particularly potent for recidivists: the idea of jihad tamkin, or jihad in the service of Islamic governance, that was linked to a training camp in Aceh in 2010; the transfer of this idea to Poso, under the banner of the Mujahidin of Eastern Indonesia (Mujahidin Indonesian Timur, MIT) from 2012 to 2016; and the call to emigrate (berhijra) to the new Islamic State from 2014 to 2017. Without the opportunity for action, ideological commitment and radicalized family members alone might not be enough to convince a released prisoner to return to violence. These are not the only factors, to be sure, but they bear particular scrutiny. The report looks at different definitions of recidivism and why they matter. It analyses available data on repeat offenders based on one of these definitions and looks at the patterns of re-engagement that these data reveal; and then applies these lessons to the planned releases for the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Read more at: http://file.understandingconflict.org/file/2020/09/Report_66_ipac.pdf
