In early March President Trump accepted an extraordinary invitation by North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un to meet this spring. It was unclear where the meeting would take place; the meeting would be by the end of May. It was totally unexpected because Trump has threatened ‘Fire and Fury’ and insulted the North Korean leader incessantly.
Trump claims his belligerence has yielded results in moving Kim Jong-Un to yield from his position, but the question is, who stands to gain in North Korea. Trump’s sudden agreement to come to Pyongyang has pushed Kim Jong Un to a rapprochement with Beijing and rekindle their strategic alliance, outwitting Trump who has adopted Xi Nin King as practically his best friend.
Who has the advantage in the latest version of the North Korean issue? Arguably it is Kim Jong Un and China. When the Kim’s mystery train returned to Pyongyang after a secret visit to Beijing, it was revealed as a successful diplomatic coup staged by Xi Ninking and Kim Jong Un. The author of the initiative is not known, but clearly it was not Donald Trump.
Who will gain the most from the meeting in May, if indeed it happens? When World War II ended in 1945, Japan lost control of Korea to Allied forces. In much the same way that Germany was split after the war, Korea was divided at the 38th parallel, with the Soviet Union administering the northern half and the United States administering the southern half. The foreign administration of North and South Korea was intended to be temporary, but a different story unfolded. North and South Korea became the most hostile of adversaries, each backed by the world’s superpowers – America and China – in economic and military competition. By 2017 the rivalry had become a nuclear challenge.
North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-il died on December 17, 2011, and his son, Kim Jong-un, took power.
How this new, young leader will guide his country and interact on the international stage remains to be seen. He is regarded as erratic and unpredictable But the unpredictability of North Korea has met unexpected competition from a country least expected to the unpredictable element of world politics – the United States of America. The election of Donald Trump to the US Presidency defied predictions by itself. But the way the new President has conducted his office makes the US public policy a game of flip-flops. In the first few months he had reversed his positions on a number of issues including China, NATO, Syria, and the Washington establishment. He has an approval rating of 40% or less for over a year. But this support comes from diehards who are intensely loyal. He has bragged about his popularity in the infamous words :” I could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and I would be able to get away with it.”
North Korea is a contest between the unpredictables. But in a weird way, America is the more unpredictable. In fact, it is led by the most unpredictable leader in its history.
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