Over the next few decades, life in Southeast Asia will become more demanding. Climate change will bring about international rows over water in mainland Southeast Asia, as melting glaciers up in the Himalayas reduce freshwater availability along the Mekong. In maritime Southeast Asia, the rising sea will threaten to sink hundreds of low-lying islands while increased flooding will imperil millions of Southeast Asians living along the region’s coastlines, rivers, and lakes. Add to all this the changing weather patterns that will wreak havoc on the planting and harvesting seasons of rice, a cereal grain whose cultivation is essential to food security in every country of the region.
Needless to say, climate change affects everyone on the planet, but its impact varies in intensity from one context to another, whether geographic, social, or economic. According to a Asian Development Bank forecast, losses from climate change in Southeast Asia may amount to 11 percent of GDP by 2100, if no action is taken to address it. However, climate change need not be an unmitigated threat to growth and development provided our resources are put to use in a sustainable manner. This is the main idea behind the push for ‘green growth’. The OECD describes it as a means to foster economic growth and development while ensuring natural assets continue to provide the resources and environmental services on which our well-being relies.
Since Southeast Asian governments signed on to the Paris Agreement in 2016, the idea of green growth has slowly taken root in policies and development projects. Cambodia, for example, is implementing a ‘climate change financing framework’. The framework estimates the economic impact of climate change and maps the costs of policy responses, enabling the Cambodian government to build the case for international assistance in meeting the country’s climate goals. Our first Spotlight article, written by Singapore Institute of International Affairs’ Simon Tay and Fawziah Selamat, further expands on how each country in Southeast Asia is making growth more green, whether through Malaysia’s green sukuk financing setup or the Philippines’ transition to renewable energy.
However, some governments in Southeast Asia are slow to put their money where their mouth is. As our second Spotlight article by Dr. Aretha Aprilia amply illustrates, Indonesia, for instance, is dependent on fossil fuel to generate the great majority of its electricity supply for the foreseeable future. In 2050, oil will still account for a fifth of energy generation in Indonesia, coal a quarter, and natural gas another quarter. Despite international pledges to support green growth, the country remains stuck in overly rigid thinking when it comes to electrification, rural or otherwise. Without a socially equitable and environmentally friendly basis for electricity generation, Indonesia will continue to lag in green growth and unnecessarily expose its people to the dangers that climate change will bring.
Climate change will come to Southeast Asia, and its effects will adversely affect lives in the region. While their governments have in general supported efforts at mitigating the worst effects of climate change, much too little is taking place on the ground in terms of greening growth. The region still needs several more decades of relatively high growth, and without growth strategies that take sustainability seriously, climate change has the potential to slow down development in Southeast Asia.
