Korea Herald
14 Dec 2014
North Korea is likely to talk without sincerity to ease sanctions and pressure
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson offered Tuesday to begin direct talks with North Korea without preconditions. Whether his offer will open up a new possibility for the resolution of the North’s nuclear and missile issues has come into the spotlight.
“Let’s just meet,” Tillerson said in a speech to Washington’s Atlantic Council think tank. “We can talk about the weather if you want. We can talk about whether it’s going to be a square table or a round table.”
Implicitly then, he thinks it would be worth holding a meeting even for the sake of meeting, as the first could be a catalyst for a series of talks. He also seems to intend to begin with a light conversation without an agenda and then move to the nuclear problem once dialogue gets on track.
Considering the Donald Trump administration’s existing position that it is not enough for Pyongyang to freeze its nuclear and missile program and that it should be ready to scrap it for talks with the US, Tillerson’s offer suggested a drastic shift.
His proposal appears to have been influenced by the realization that dialogue is impossible with the existing preconditions. His offer may be Washington’s last diplomatic effort in a situation where demands for tough policies against Pyongyang, including a pre-emptive strike, have been gaining traction in the US since the North succeeded in test-firing apparent intercontinental ballistic missile Hwaseong-15 late last month. His offer is also viewed as final preparatory work for a military solution.
However, whether it is a personal offer or a coordinated one reflecting the White House position is unclear. The White House issued an ambiguous statement that “the president’s views on North Korea have not changed.”
North Korea declared the completion of its nuclear force after launching Hwaseong-15, then hinted at Russia that its precondition for dialogue was the US recognition of North Korea as a nuclear state. Its decision to allow UN political affairs chief Jeffrey Feltman to visit Pyongyang can be understood in that context. These developments can be seen as a signal that Pyongyang wants to talk with the US. The likelihood of its accepting Tillerson’s offer appears high.
But the possibility of the North feigning willingness for dialogue with the intention to ease sanctions and pressure cannot be excluded. North Korea has never changed its position of accepting the US offer for dialogue only if it recognizes the North as a nuclear power. It vaunted the completion of its nuclear force as a “historic victory” and vowed to strengthen the force “quantitatively.” The communist state will likely make unacceptable demands for the suspension of the US-Korea joint military exercises and withdrawal of US forces from Korea. It may try to wrap up dialogue with an ambiguous deal recognizing its nuclear arsenal. If dialogue ends with nukes remaining in the North, no matter what promises it will make, it would be a win for the North. That must not happen.
Pyongyang believes it can defend its regime with nuclear arms, but it would be wise to change its mind. Tillerson’s offer for dialogue may be a watershed for the North. Its leader Kim Jong-un should heed US national security adviser H.R. McMaster’s remark that the international community is facing its “last best chance” to avoid military confrontation over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
The US must avoid making a grave error of recognizing the North as a nuclear state for the sake of holding a dialogue. The reason the North seeks nuclear and missile programs at all costs is obvious. By using them as a card in negotiating with the US, it will try to break up the US-Korea alliance and ultimately unify the Korean Peninsula under its communist regime. This being so, any security issue on the peninsula must not be resolved, regardless of South Korea’s positions, if the US talks with the North.
