NEW BOUNDARIES, VOTER APATHY AND THE SLOW EROSION OF DEMOCRACY IN MALAYSIA

By Rashaad Ali and Najwa Abdullah*

Today-Apr 9

     The recent redrawing of Malaysia’s electoral boundaries, which came into effect on March 29, has caused quite a stir as election fever grips the country.

The motion was passed despite strong protests from opposition MPs, as well as civil society groups, who accused the Election Commission of colluding with the government to tip the balance in favour of the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition. Many have condemned it as an exercise in malapportionment and gerrymandering which will widen existing ethnic divides, adding to a growing anxiety among urban Malaysians that Malaysia is arcing towards authoritarianism despite the budding support for the      oppositions at both regional and national levels.

For some others, however, the move was not at all surprising, given the long history of accusations of electoral manipulation being employed during elections in Malaysia.

In the 2013 election, for example, BN held on to power without acquiring the popular vote, made possible because of the constant redrawing of electoral boundaries over the years and Malaysia’s ‘first past the post’ system, giving the advantage to BN.    Malapportionment and gerrymandering are illegal under Schedule 13 of the Malaysian Constitution.

In a broader context, the redrawing of boundaries, which is likely to result in disproportional distribution of votes in the upcoming election, can be seen as an example of a polarizing political trend creeping into South-east Asia.

But is the redrawing of boundaries as effective as many think it will be? A closer examination makes things decidedly murky.

Redelineation shifts voters based on their ethnicity, creating ethnic super-majorities in some seats, while balancing the ethnic composition in others. This has differing impacts on the two parties with the clearest ethnic support: the United Malays National Organization (Umno) and the Democratic Action Party (DAP) – the former stands to gain at the expense of the latter. By moving Malay voters out of constituencies that already overwhelmingly support the opposition and into constituencies that are more marginal, BN gives itself a better chance at victory in seats where they can expect to mount a challenge. An example of this is the Sungai Buloh seat. According to Invoke Malaysia, a data analytics organization founded by Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s Rafizi Ramli, the redistricting would result in the number of Sungai Buloh’s Malay voters increasing by 15.4 per cent, while non-Malay voters would fall by 12.2 per cent.

In the Subang seat, on the other hand, Malay voters would fall by 12.7 per cent, while non-Malay voters would grow by 12.9 per cent.

This movement of voters grants an advantage to BN in marginal opposition seats. Lembah Pantai, currently held by Nurul Izzah Anwar of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), who won the seat by a margin of less than 4 per cent, is one such example.

After redelineation, Lembah Pantai sees a 3.4 per cent increase in Malay voters, while the number of non-Malays falls by 1.6 per cent. This might be enough to swing the seat in BN’s favour, given the slim margin of victory in the 2013 election.

However, any clear advantage to BN will be mitigated by a split in the Malay vote. Suggestions that BN will stroll to victory after redelineation assume voting patterns in the upcoming election will mirror those in GE13.

Malay voters are spoilt for choice: Apart from Umno and PKR, the slate comprises Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), Parti Amanah Negara, and Bersatu.

This becomes an issue when considering how much support Bersatu can draw from Umno supporters, since it is a splinter party. There are thus no guarantees that Malay support will remain with the traditional powerhouses.

The opposition can use its reliance on non-Malay support to provide a platform for victory, particularly in mixed constituencies. This means three-cornered fights would also work to their advantage: with the Malay vote split both ways, strong support from non-Malays might be enough to win the seat. In Malay majority seats however, the effect is less pronounced. It would take a particularly appealing candidate from one of the opposition parties to give it a better fighting chance.

This is not to suggest the redrawing of electoral boundaries will have little effect: Preliminary reports suggest the opposition could lose up to seven state seats in Selangor. In battleground states such as Johor, re-delineation might be the edge that ensures BN retains the state.

What it does suggest is that although BN gains a slight advantage, new political dynamics mean there are no guarantees of victory, even though the coalition has used all means available to try and gain an advantage – through delineation, using state instruments like the Election Commission, and others.

But while delineation’s impact may be blunted, it contributes to a far deeper problem in Malaysia’s democracy.

Throughout more than 50 years of independence, Malaysian society has witnessed numerous symptoms of atrophied forms of democracy, fabricated under the state’s aphorism of “political stability and economic progress”.

These include ethnic-based political boundaries and social benefits, draconian state control, such as that via the Internal Security Act, and various other forms of electoral manipulation.

As a result, despair among various groups, particularly millenials, has taken root, resulting in lukewarm enthusiasm for the democratic process.

The popularity of the Undi Rosak (spoilt votes) campaign is a symptom of this.

Young Malaysians, especially, are evincing increasing disinterest with effecting change via the ballot box. According to a recent survey of 604 youths in Malaysia conducted by independent research firm Merdeka Centre and WATAN, 70 per cent said they were not interested in politics, while 75 per cent found politics confusing.

This lackadaisical attitude clearly favors the dominant power and hampers concrete structural change, an affirmation of a trend seen increasingly elsewhere: Political paralysis among voters, resulting in stalled social transformation.

Such apathy does not bode well for democracy in Malaysia.

*Rashaad Ali and Najwa Abdullah are Research Analysts with the Malaysia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. This is part of a series of commentaries by RSIS on the 14th Malaysian General Election. 

(first published in Today – https://www.todayonline.com/commentary/new-boundaries-voter-apathy-and-slow-erosion-democracy-malaysia)