N Korea: An Enemy at ASEAN’s Gate?

Posted by AsiaViews | Jan 2, 2018 | 0 |

By Kavi Chongkittavorn*

The Bangkok Post

26 Dec 2017

Southeast Asia is no longer immune from North Korean nuclear destructive force. As tensions heighten by the day, the US, Japan, South Korea and China, in their thoughtful ways, are bringing the looming nuclear threat to the eardrums of all ASEAN leaders. A frequently asked question: Are they serious?

At this juncture, the US has been the most assertive in pushing key ASEAN members to do more to tighten the screws on North Korea. Since US President Donald Trump came to the region in November and highlighted the hermit kingdom’s nuclear threat, Malaysia, Singapore, Myanmar and Thailand have been the main targets due to their close ties compared to the rest of the region.

Since June, Malaysia and Singapore have implemented US requests to further tighten diplomatic and trade ties to further isolate North Korea — in other words, Washington wants to make sure ongoing sanctions are completely enforced in order to punish Pyongyang and convince it to come to the negotiating table. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had to harden his stance on future direct talks, affirming that North Korea has to earn it. Earlier, he said the talks could take place anytime without preconditions

During recent visits to Washington by Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, their pledges to cooperate with the US to tighten the sanctions beyond the UN mandates pleased Mr Trump. Thailand, as a US ally, responded differently. In Washington, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha simply agreed in October to comply with all UN Security Council resolutions.

That explained why Joseph Yun, US Special Representative for North Korea Policy, flew to Bangkok on Dec 14 exclusively to persuade the Thai government to do more beyond what it had promised earlier. Mr Yun got what he came for — by next month, Thailand will end all imports from North Korea and implement fully the UN resolutions, which currently is at the 94% level. Meanwhile, the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs will not give further diplomatic accreditation to remaining North Korean diplomats. Bangkok has no plans to expel businessmen and students taking up residence here.

In the case of Myanmar, it is a more complicated situation. Myanmar and North Korea used to have extensive relations during the 1990s-2000s, developed during a period of international sanctions and isolation, with close cooperation on nuclear-related matters. The Obama administration managed to halt transfers of missile technology from Pyongyang to Nay Pyi Taw. Senior US officials have held talks with top military leaders in Myanmar in the past months to ascertain that all military ties have ended with North Korea.

While visiting Bangkok, Mr Yun also held a closed-door meeting with Bangkok-based ASEAN ambassadors to brief them on the upcoming US actions. It was so secretive that the US embassy’s officials would neither deny nor confirm the meeting. However, one ASEAN ambassador said she dispatched a representative.

Mr Yun discussed the plan by the US and Canada to convene a meeting of foreign ministers on Jan 16 in Vancouver to display solidarity among the international community. He requested Thailand’s participation because Thailand was one of the 16 states that sent forces to join the UN Command (UNC) to assist South Korea during the 1950-53 Korean War. The Philippines was the other ASEAN member to do so.

Washington and Ottawa hope that the UNC Sending States meeting will increase global pressure on North Korea and send a strong signal to Pyongyang that the international community will never accept it as a nuclear state. This critical meeting will urge all participants, including Sweden, Japan, South Korea and India, to consolidate their positions. Furthermore, it will serve as a sounding board for new ideas that could lead to a “viable diplomatic solution”.

For the time being, it is an open secret that Washington has to juggle between the positions held by its two major allies, Japan and South Korea. Tokyo wants tougher sanctions and policies against Pyongyang while Seoul is still pitching for more dialogue as a means to reduce the current tension. Under Mr Trump, Washington has been trying hard to include key ASEAN countries in the US-led coalition putting pressure on North Korea. Such an approach is forcing them to choose sides in an incremental manner. However, Thailand’s reaction and cooperation with the US on North Korea will largely hinge on tangible actions by China toward its eastern neighbor.

In addition, Mr Yun also discussed a contingency plan for the evacuation of non-combatants living on the Korean Peninsula. Over a million of them are in the conflict zone — at least 800,000 Chinese and some 100,000 Thais live in South Korea and Japan. If war erupts, only the US military would have the capacity to conduct a large evacuation quickly. Commercial aircraft would not be able to relocate huge populations in time — military aircraft would therefore be needed.

At least for the next few weeks, Washington will continue to use diplomatic efforts to avoid igniting a nuclear war. The new UN sanctions last week were aimed at crippling Pyongyang’s energy lifeline and economy. However, US patience is running out. If the Vancouver meeting cannot come up with tangible results, Mr Trump could start beating the war drums.

*Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.

(source:https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1385814/n-korea-an-enemy-at-aseans-gate-)

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N Korea: An Enemy at ASEAN’s Gate?