By Lex Rieffel

East Asia Forum-Feb 17, 2026

Myanmar’s three-phase elections beginning in December 2025 delivered a preordained junta-backed outcome while the civil war showed no sign of ending. Opposition hopes of forcing a surrender faded as Chinese pressure on ethnic resistance organizations helped the military regain territory, even as the Arakan Army advanced in Rakhine State. The economy continued to implode, public services deteriorated and humanitarian needs rose. With China backing the junta and ASEAN constrained by non-interference and consensus, Myanmar is left with no plausible path out of conflict. Read more at: https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/02/17/myanmar-without-a-path-to-recovery/ First published in East Asia Forum