Mizzima-June 18
A new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that an emerging Rohingya insurgency targeting the Arakan Army (AA) could further destabilize Rakhine State, derail refugee repatriation efforts, and inflame communal tensions across the region. The report, “Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency,” released on 18 June, outlines how Rohingya armed groups in Bangladesh’s refugee camps have united and increased recruitment, framing their struggle as a religious “jihad” against the Arakan Army, which now controls nearly all of Rakhine State. Following the AA’s 2024 battlefield victories over Myanmar’s military, Rohingya groups including Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) agreed to a truce in November and launched a campaign work together against the AA. Large rallies in refugee camps have attracted thousands, with religious leaders and local influencers encouraging youth to join the fight. Though violence in the camps has declined, the groups have grown in strength and popular support.
The report notes that unification of Rohingya armed groups and their growing legitimacy among desperate refugees could be a dangerous turning point. The development of a full-blown insurgency, even if militarily ineffective, would worsen conditions for Rohingya civilians caught in the crossfire. The report highlights the complex role of Bangladeshi security agencies, which maintain ties with both Rohingya groups and the Arakan Army. Although Bangladesh’s interim government under Muhammad Yunus has opened tentative talks with the AA, security forces appear to tacitly back armed Rohingya factions, seeing them as leverage to pressure the group into accepting repatriation. Such a strategy, the ICG warns, could backfire. Any Rohingya insurgency would likely provoke a harsh response from the AA, damage prospects for dialogue, and deepen Rohingya isolation within Myanmar’s Buddhist-majority society. It would also complicate international diplomacy and undercut refugee protection.
The report urges Bangladesh to curb militant activities in the camps and expand cross-border trade and aid to stabilize Rakhine State. The Arakan Army, meanwhile, must govern inclusively and begin meaningful dialogue with Rohingya communities. International donors are also urged to sustain humanitarian support amid growing aid cuts, especially from the U.S., to prevent despair from fueling radicalization. “Building trust among the three sides – the Arakan Army, the Rohingya and Bangladesh – will be crucial to averting a drift into further conflict,” the report concludes. Read more at:
