By Kavi Chingkittavorn*
Myanmar Times
Nov 28, 2017
“China will go all out to help Myanmar in time of crisis. India will also help Myanmar, but it does not go out,” was the light-hearted comment made by a seasoned ASEAN diplomat based in Yangon recently. He was referring to the behavior of Myanmar’s two powerful neighbors these past months, which is providing a window on the leadership and diplomatic vision and power of the two Asian giants.
China and India have been forthcoming in assisting Myanmar’s handling of the crisis in Rakhine State. Their leaders have expressed full support and understanding of the dilemma faced by the government of State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and judging from the reactions from Nay Pyi Taw, China’s diplomatic overtures on the north-eastern region have been received warmly by civilian and military leaders.
The best indicator of this was the content of a memorandum of understanding signed on Thursday between Myanmar and Bangladesh, which was not dissimilar to the comments made by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who visited Myanmar and Bangladesh recently to help ease the tension. Wang Yi, an old hand at Asian diplomacy, said the crisis in Rakhine must be worked out bilaterally before inviting international assistance. His trips displayed Beijing’s diplomatic finesse and sensitivity in generating the much-needed impetus and synergy that were required to conclude last week’s agreement.
Since the outbreak of fighting on August 25 and the exodus of an estimated 620,000 people across the border, both countries had been trying to resolve their differences with little success. The bilateral talks last month failed to agree on a timeframe and the level of commitment to future repatriation efforts.
Wang Yi also proposed a three-phase plan to help with the ongoing crisis – a ceasefire as the most urgent task, followed by a bilateral dialogue, and a long term and sustainable solution that tackles the root cause of the conflict. Even though China’s proposal was not earthshaking, it did provide the assurance that Myanmar and Bangladesh needed that their endeavors would receive broad support from their neighbors, the international community and UN agencies.
Doubtless, Wang Yi’s confidence and concrete plans were derived from President Xi Jingping’s recently forged diplomatic strategies. To show that Xi’s new-era foreign policy means business, the Rakhine crisis may be a blessing in disguise by providing a pilot project for the new diplomatic pathway. It should not surprise anyone if, in coming days, Beijing provides extra assistance both in cash and kind to help alleviate the hardships faced by refugees and share the burdens of Bangladesh and Myanmar. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is to visit Beijing on Thursday for a meeting of the Communist Party of China in Dialogue with World Political Parties, where more cooperation could be announced between the two countries.
In a similar vein, India has been defending Myanmar in the Rakhine crisis despite domestic constraints posed by the Muslim and Rohingya communities and its global profile as the world’s largest democracy. India has been extremely careful not to be seen as pushing its eastern neighbor too much. Like China, India has to tread a fine line, as New Delhi has close ties with both Dhaka and Nay Pyi Taw.
A huge cargo shipment of aid from India to displaced people in Rakhine State last week received widespread coverage in the state-run media, and New Delhi also sent aid to Bangladesh over the past several weeks. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India wants to go beyond the current state of bilateral ties. India wants stronger defense and security ties and hopes for purchases of bigger and more sophisticated military hardware by Myanmar, which up to now has limited its imports to ammunition, rocket launchers and communications equipment.
More than officials would like to admit, India is now trying to increase its economic clout as part of the Act East policy, knowing full well that the bread-and-butter factor will eventually win the hearts and minds of the people of Myanmar. In the past, India has not been forthcoming when it comes to bilateral trade. The recent hiccup over imports of beans and pulses was a case study of the delicate nature of their economic relations. From now on, India cannot afford a repeat of such incidents. For decades, China and India have been wooing Myanmar due its rich natural resources and unique geopolitical location. They share a long common border – 2204 kilometers on the west and 1624 kilometers on the east. With the growth of connectivity projects, Myanmar is quickly transforming itself into a powerful hub linking South Asia, southern China and mainland South East Asia. Myanmar is also the intersection of both China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the newly established Japan-India project, known as the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC).
Now, with talk of the Indo-Pacific region very much in vogue following US President Donald Trump’s visit to Asia recently, Myanmar’s strategic assets are highly valued and its production value chains are spreading to the Middle East and Africa. The AAGC is now taking shape after its launch in October, and the Jakarta-based Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia has been tasked with working out action plans.
Since timing is of the essence, both China and India are taking up the Rakhine crisis as a launching pad to engage Myanmar and increase their diplomatic and moral influence. It remains to be seen how policymakers in Nay Pyi Taw will juggle the region’s two most powerful players, which have the power to twist and turn the fragile regional environment in one of the world’s most contested strategic spots.
*Kavi Chongkittavorn is editor-in-chief of The Myanmar Times.
(https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-ringside-china-india-bout.html)
