Inducements, Not More sanctions, Needed in North Korea crisis

Posted by AsiaViews | Sep 12, 2017 | 0 |

The Manila Times

Sep 6, 2017

The standoff between North Korea and the West continues to bedevil the otherwise relatively stable Asia-Pacific region and spook global markets. The crisis took a turn for the worse when Pyongyang detonated over the weekend what it said was a hydrogen bomb that could be mounted on a missile.

It was North Korea’s sixth and most powerful weapons test, in defiance of the United Nations Security Council. It further raised the stakes and sent Seoul into a war-games mode, with the South Korean military firing ballistic missiles on Monday to simulate an attack on nuclear test sites used by Pyongyang.

Washington’s response, however, threatens to trigger a global catastrophe.

In reaction to Pyongyang’s latest provocation, US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley proposed even more crippling sanctions, declaring “enough is enough” and saying North Korea was practically “begging for war.”

Haley’s tenacity is admirable – in August, the former South Carolina governor secured a unanimous vote in the Security Council to ban North Korean coal, iron, iron ore, lead, lead ore and seafood exports, as well as add North Korean persons and entities into a blacklist, earning praise in Washington.

But the latest missile tests only confirmed what Haley already knew: sanctions don’t work on Kim Jong-un, supreme leader of the most rogue of states.

The proposal is to further cripple the North Korean economy by imposing an oil embargo. South Korea, Japan, France and the United Kingdom are said to be supportive of new and tougher sanctions.

At this point, however, the wisdom of further sanctions has to be questioned. Seven sets of sanctions previously imposed by Security Council resolutions have only emboldened North Korea, instead of sobering it.

An oil embargo would plunge North Korea into political and economic turmoil that could irreversibly change the security equation.

Haley has to dial down on the rhetoric that was upped by her boss, US President Donald Trump, who threatened last month to unleash “fire and fury” on North Korea for its defiance.

What is also needed is a strategic rollback on sanctions. The total ban on exports, particularly coal exports – the North’s source of hard cash – was apparently what triggered the latest tests.

China could be the key. Previously, the coal export restrictions only covered shipments to China, Pyongyang’s main market.

Analysts have said China could be the real target of the North’s latest provocations, with Pyongyang supposedly hoping Beijing could exert efforts to finally stage talks with the West.

Pyongyang should be persuaded – ideally by Beijing – to return to negotiations, and there is no shortage of inducements given the massive economic sanctions the North Korean people have endured over the years.

(http://www.manilatimes.net/inducements-not-sanctions-needed-nkorea-crisis/348910/

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EXTRICATING NDONESIAN CHILDREN FROM ISIS INFLUENCE ABROAD

Indonesia urgently needs to revisit the possibility of repatriating the neediest of its young citizens stranded abroad, whose families had earlier joined ISIS. Most of these children are in camps in northern Syria but there are also small numbers in the Philippines, Afghanistan and Iraq. “Extricating Indonesian Children from ISIS Influence Abroad”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) argues that the government could begin by bringing back small groups of unaccompanied children under ten years of age, who pose minimal security risk and are most vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in the camps.“The problem is that health and security conditions are worsening by the day in the Syrian camps, and the children are growing older,” says Dyah Kartika, IPAC analyst. “They need access to schools, a nurturing environment, and medical attention. If the government waits too long, the children will be further exposed to ISIS ideology.” The new report examines a 2019 list of Indonesians in camps and prisons run by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Indonesian government has been trying to verify their citizenship, but with pseudonyms, misspellings and bad transliterations, it is a daunting task. At the time the data was collected, between March and June 2019, there were 555 Indonesians in SDF camps and prisons, including 367 children. Among the children, approximately 277 were under the age of ten and 34 were unaccompanied. In June 2021, there are fewer than ten children who are both unaccompanied and under the age of ten that could be prioritized for return. Bringing back children of ISIS families is no easy task. The report analyses the main challenges faced by the Indonesian government. These include definitional issues, bureaucratic competition, the difficulty of verifying nationality, evaluating the toll of exposure to conflict, assessing security risk, and finding relatives or others willing to provide care once the children are returned. In addition, COVID has meant stringent restrictions on travel, placing further obstacles in the way of repatriation. There are several models for rehabilitation of children exposed to violent extremism in Indonesia that could be modified to accommodate the needs of children repatriated from abroad. The report examines these models and argues that the government does not need to have every detail of rehabilitation programs in place before it starts extricating children from ISIS influence. It can start by bringing back the most vulnerable children and then modify programs as needed.

“It’s important that the government see these children as victims” says Dyah. “They deserve a chance to be children again.”

Inducements, Not More sanctions, Needed in North Korea crisis