Indonesia at a Crossroads

Posted by AsiaViews | Dec 4, 2017 | 0 |

By Anthony Wonsono*

The Jakarta Globe

Nov 30, 2017

In a year filled with high-octane drama, from the trial of Jakarta’s former governor, Basuki ‘Ahok’ Tjahaja Purnama, to the high-profile e-KTP corruption case involving House of Representatives Speaker Setya Novanto and other officials, the Indonesian people are left wondering what is in store for their country.

Such socio-political concerns, while understandable, are fortunately counteracted by strong and improving economic fundamentals that should propel Indonesia forward. In 2017, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s administration achieved stable 5.1 percent gross domestic product growth. While this number in and of itself is not stunning, other figures are.

Indonesia jumped 19 places on the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index for 2018, to 72 from 91. For the first time since the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s, Indonesia’s sovereign bonds attained investment grade ratings from all three major credit rating agencies. The inflation rate was stable at an average of 3.88 percent between January and October, and it is projected to close the year on approximately 3.5 percent.

These statistics and others, including a stable current-account deficit of below 2 percent of GDP and a strengthening balance of payments, portray Indonesia’s stable economy.

Another trend that signifies the Jokowi administration’s commitment to long-term economic growth is progress on infrastructure spending. Officials have been quick to tout the 568 kilometers of toll roads that were completed during President Jokowi’s first three years in office – more than any president before him. Such progress is something that can make all Indonesians proud.

This strong foundation will be a boon for Indonesia, yet it is not enough to see the country fulfil its longstanding dream of becoming the economic powerhouse of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Regulatory uncertainty, bureaucratic inefficiency and lackluster education standards, among other concerns, remain structural obstacles President Jokowi and future leaders must strive to overcome.

Thankfully, the president says he will prioritize education over the next few years. If re-elected for a second term, he will focus on vocational training and specialized education.

While general and basic education are no less important, President Jokowi is banking on providing Indonesians with hard skills that equip them to work in specific sectors, and prepare them to succeed in the digital economy. Given Jokowi’s track record of coming through on key agendas, such as boosting infrastructure and cutting subsidies, there is optimism that he will deliver on his vision for education.

While economic growth this year has been stable at best, stagnant at worst, strong fundamentals and a focus on long-term growth should push Indonesia on a positive trajectory. Socio-politically, uncertainty still looms. During this past year, Indonesia – as did many other countries – witnessed a rise in inward-looking nationalism and the abrasive use of identity politics.

Elections over the next two years will test Indonesia’s mettle as a pluralistic, tolerant and open democracy. Expectations abound that race and religion will be wielded as political tools, as in this year’s Jakarta gubernatorial election.

Indonesia is indeed at a crossroads. Time will tell if Jokowi’s investment in long-term economic growth will pay off. Time will also tell if Indonesia as a nation will maintain its constitutional adherence to tolerance and remain loyal to the principle of Bhinneka Tunggal Ika, or Unity in Diversity.

*Anthony Wonsono is the executive editor of BeritaSatu Media Holdings

(http://jakartaglobe.id/editorial/indonesia-at-a-crossroads/)

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POINTS TO PONDER

EXTRICATING NDONESIAN CHILDREN FROM ISIS INFLUENCE ABROAD

Indonesia urgently needs to revisit the possibility of repatriating the neediest of its young citizens stranded abroad, whose families had earlier joined ISIS. Most of these children are in camps in northern Syria but there are also small numbers in the Philippines, Afghanistan and Iraq. “Extricating Indonesian Children from ISIS Influence Abroad”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) argues that the government could begin by bringing back small groups of unaccompanied children under ten years of age, who pose minimal security risk and are most vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in the camps.“The problem is that health and security conditions are worsening by the day in the Syrian camps, and the children are growing older,” says Dyah Kartika, IPAC analyst. “They need access to schools, a nurturing environment, and medical attention. If the government waits too long, the children will be further exposed to ISIS ideology.” The new report examines a 2019 list of Indonesians in camps and prisons run by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Indonesian government has been trying to verify their citizenship, but with pseudonyms, misspellings and bad transliterations, it is a daunting task. At the time the data was collected, between March and June 2019, there were 555 Indonesians in SDF camps and prisons, including 367 children. Among the children, approximately 277 were under the age of ten and 34 were unaccompanied. In June 2021, there are fewer than ten children who are both unaccompanied and under the age of ten that could be prioritized for return. Bringing back children of ISIS families is no easy task. The report analyses the main challenges faced by the Indonesian government. These include definitional issues, bureaucratic competition, the difficulty of verifying nationality, evaluating the toll of exposure to conflict, assessing security risk, and finding relatives or others willing to provide care once the children are returned. In addition, COVID has meant stringent restrictions on travel, placing further obstacles in the way of repatriation. There are several models for rehabilitation of children exposed to violent extremism in Indonesia that could be modified to accommodate the needs of children repatriated from abroad. The report examines these models and argues that the government does not need to have every detail of rehabilitation programs in place before it starts extricating children from ISIS influence. It can start by bringing back the most vulnerable children and then modify programs as needed.

“It’s important that the government see these children as victims” says Dyah. “They deserve a chance to be children again.”

Indonesia at a Crossroads