India’s Relationship with Pakistan Could Get Worse Before it Gets Better

Posted by AsiaViews | Jan 15, 2018 | 0 |

The Hindustan Times

8 Jan 2018
The affair of Kulbhushan Jadhav, sentenced to death by a Pakistani military court for alleged involvement in espionage, has the potential to add to the chill that currently characterises relations, especially if there is any precipitate action by Islamabad.

India and Pakistan have held no substantive talks for close to a decade even as their relations have been buffeted by one storm after another, including a string of cross-border terror attacks that put paid to efforts by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his former Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif to restore a semblance of normalcy to ties. The affair of Kulbhushan Jadhav, sentenced to death by a Pakistani military court for alleged involvement in espionage, has the potential to add to the chill that currently characterizes relations, especially if there is any precipitate action by Islamabad.

Experts and diplomats on both sides have suggested several times that efforts at a breakthrough will have a greater chance of success if New Delhi and Islamabad make a conscious effort to keep dialogue separate from domestic politics. But Pakistani politicians will soon begin preparing prepare for a crucial vote, one that is expected to see Sharif’s PML-N party emerge victorious but considerably weaker than in the 2013 election. In such circumstances, hardly any Pakistani politician is likely to make a public pitch for better relations with India. It remains to be seen whether Shehbaz Sharif, being projected as the PML-N’s prime ministerial candidate and who is known to be closer to the military than Nawaz Sharif, will be as committed as his elder brother to the peace process. Soon after the Pakistani polls, expected by June, Indian politicians will begin preparing for next year’s general election, thereby considerably narrowing the window of opportunity for any talks.

There are several other factors that influence any dialogue or any effort to put relations on an even keel, and which have not been adequately addressed. For decades, India has been loath to hold any kind of talks with the Pakistani military establishment, which has its imprint all over the country’s security and foreign policies. The civilian set-up in Pakistan remains weak despite two successful elections while the military has moved from coups to quietly pulling the levers from the background, sometimes through political proxies and sometimes in concert with the increasingly powerful judiciary. India has never come to grips with this conundrum.

The Indian government has also had a perplexing approach towards Pakistan – talking tough in public while maintaining secret contacts, the latest being the meeting of National Security Advisers in Thailand. Such a course may satisfy its domestic constituency but could make any attempt at détente harder to sell.

Then there are the jihadi groups in Pakistan that remain fully capable to carry out another Mumbai-like attack, the consequences of which would be devastating. Things could get a lot worse before they get better.

(Accessible at:http://www.hindustantimes.com/editorials/india-s-relationship-with-pakistan-could-get-worse-before-it-gets-better/story-Lm7ikIyHUKrFkjz5GKU

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EXTRICATING NDONESIAN CHILDREN FROM ISIS INFLUENCE ABROAD

Indonesia urgently needs to revisit the possibility of repatriating the neediest of its young citizens stranded abroad, whose families had earlier joined ISIS. Most of these children are in camps in northern Syria but there are also small numbers in the Philippines, Afghanistan and Iraq. “Extricating Indonesian Children from ISIS Influence Abroad”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) argues that the government could begin by bringing back small groups of unaccompanied children under ten years of age, who pose minimal security risk and are most vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in the camps.“The problem is that health and security conditions are worsening by the day in the Syrian camps, and the children are growing older,” says Dyah Kartika, IPAC analyst. “They need access to schools, a nurturing environment, and medical attention. If the government waits too long, the children will be further exposed to ISIS ideology.” The new report examines a 2019 list of Indonesians in camps and prisons run by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Indonesian government has been trying to verify their citizenship, but with pseudonyms, misspellings and bad transliterations, it is a daunting task. At the time the data was collected, between March and June 2019, there were 555 Indonesians in SDF camps and prisons, including 367 children. Among the children, approximately 277 were under the age of ten and 34 were unaccompanied. In June 2021, there are fewer than ten children who are both unaccompanied and under the age of ten that could be prioritized for return. Bringing back children of ISIS families is no easy task. The report analyses the main challenges faced by the Indonesian government. These include definitional issues, bureaucratic competition, the difficulty of verifying nationality, evaluating the toll of exposure to conflict, assessing security risk, and finding relatives or others willing to provide care once the children are returned. In addition, COVID has meant stringent restrictions on travel, placing further obstacles in the way of repatriation. There are several models for rehabilitation of children exposed to violent extremism in Indonesia that could be modified to accommodate the needs of children repatriated from abroad. The report examines these models and argues that the government does not need to have every detail of rehabilitation programs in place before it starts extricating children from ISIS influence. It can start by bringing back the most vulnerable children and then modify programs as needed.

“It’s important that the government see these children as victims” says Dyah. “They deserve a chance to be children again.”

India’s Relationship with Pakistan Could Get Worse Before it Gets Better