DRUMS OF WAR

Posted by AsiaViews | Mar 12, 2018 | 0 |

The tweet resonated round the world: US President Donald Trump to slap high tariffs on imported steel and aluminum—25 and 10 percent, respectively. While World Trade Organization (WTO) rules allow for a national-security exception, which the US government will likely cite, the United States created the international system and has benefited immensely from it for decades. Unsurprisingly, the international response has been swift and vigorous: every major player in international trade has threatened to retaliate if the US plan moves forward.

Despite all the overreaction that Trump’s tweet has elicited, however, the US plan needs to be put in context. This is not the first time the United States tries to make the international trade and financial system bend to its interests. The Nixon Shock of 1971 and Reagan’s protectionist policies, infamously directed against Japan, were instances when the United States decisively acted to protect its interests, with little concern to their effects internationally. The international trade system survived those challenges then; it will also survive Trump’s today.

If anything, the current episode suggests the extent to which the system remains centered on the United States: the fear is real that a US retreat could start unwinding the system. If purchase of the international trade system is truly strong and enduring, it should evolve with or without the United States. This said, real damage can result from those planned tariffs. This week’s first Spotlight article presents a sketch on how reaction to Trump’s tariffs could rattle the Indonesian economy. Due to its relatively low exposure to world trade, Indonesia will likely only have to manage second-order challenges from an adversely affected China and an unstable international trade system.

Our second Spotlight article, meanwhile, looks at the effects Trump’s tariffs can have on Southeast Asia as a region. The picture is substantially darker in this case, as both Trump’s tariffs and retaliations responding to them threaten to undercut the exports of countries like Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. In turn, the weakening trade balance for these countries may sap the economic growth of neighboring countries that have deep economic ties with them. The challenge to the international trade system that Trump’s tariffs present is a systemic problem for Southeast Asia because it will have no alternative but the WTO.

Though coverage of international trade has normally highlighted China’s expanding role, the fact that a mere tweet—not yet an official government policy—can upset the system shows the United States’ central role in underwriting the system. There is a chance this wave of US discontent with international trade will pass, as it did under Nixon and Reagan. If the United States decides to opt out, however, what is stopping other countries from moving forward with strengthening international trade themselves?

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EXTRICATING NDONESIAN CHILDREN FROM ISIS INFLUENCE ABROAD

Indonesia urgently needs to revisit the possibility of repatriating the neediest of its young citizens stranded abroad, whose families had earlier joined ISIS. Most of these children are in camps in northern Syria but there are also small numbers in the Philippines, Afghanistan and Iraq. “Extricating Indonesian Children from ISIS Influence Abroad”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) argues that the government could begin by bringing back small groups of unaccompanied children under ten years of age, who pose minimal security risk and are most vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in the camps.“The problem is that health and security conditions are worsening by the day in the Syrian camps, and the children are growing older,” says Dyah Kartika, IPAC analyst. “They need access to schools, a nurturing environment, and medical attention. If the government waits too long, the children will be further exposed to ISIS ideology.” The new report examines a 2019 list of Indonesians in camps and prisons run by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Indonesian government has been trying to verify their citizenship, but with pseudonyms, misspellings and bad transliterations, it is a daunting task. At the time the data was collected, between March and June 2019, there were 555 Indonesians in SDF camps and prisons, including 367 children. Among the children, approximately 277 were under the age of ten and 34 were unaccompanied. In June 2021, there are fewer than ten children who are both unaccompanied and under the age of ten that could be prioritized for return. Bringing back children of ISIS families is no easy task. The report analyses the main challenges faced by the Indonesian government. These include definitional issues, bureaucratic competition, the difficulty of verifying nationality, evaluating the toll of exposure to conflict, assessing security risk, and finding relatives or others willing to provide care once the children are returned. In addition, COVID has meant stringent restrictions on travel, placing further obstacles in the way of repatriation. There are several models for rehabilitation of children exposed to violent extremism in Indonesia that could be modified to accommodate the needs of children repatriated from abroad. The report examines these models and argues that the government does not need to have every detail of rehabilitation programs in place before it starts extricating children from ISIS influence. It can start by bringing back the most vulnerable children and then modify programs as needed.

“It’s important that the government see these children as victims” says Dyah. “They deserve a chance to be children again.”

DRUMS OF WAR