THAILAND
By Kavi Chongkittavorn*
Bangkok Post-Mar 13
When Australia looks to the north, what does it see? Southeast Asia, of course. But the region is no longer the geographic landmass in its front yard comprised of 10 countries governed by different political systems and cultural values to its own. From next week onward, Southeast Asian countries, each with a unique domestic dynamic, will become the nexus of Australian foreign policy.
Collectively, the 645-million strong ASEAN community can greatly benefit Australia, economically and politically. The summit between their leaders in Sydney on Saturday and Sunday will effectively place ASEAN at the heart of Australian strategic planning as never before. Judging from the year-long preparations for the summit this coming weekend, Canberra is deadly serious about riding the roller coaster with ASEAN. A full week of activities related to ASEAN in major cities ahead of the summit were aimed at changing the perception of ASEAN sceptics and promoting awareness and understanding of ASEAN-Australian relations.
This kind of “cool-headed” assessment does not come easy. It has taken a long time for Australian policymakers to come to terms with themselves and the new reality of Southeast Asia. Some still think ASEAN is just about empty talk and is toothless ruled by various authoritarian regimes, while others have a more positive picture of the regional grouping.
For the time being, the government of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is going all out to push ASEAN-Australia ties to the next level. Websites of government agencies are packed with information and data portraying Southeast Asia as a huge market for Australian companies, with two-way trade of more than US$100 billion, exceeding its trade with the US and Japan.
In short, more than 12,000 Australian firms are making money in ASEAN. With a combined GDP of more than $2.4 trillion, which translates into immense economic potential, ASEAN represents a vast opportunity for Australia. But will its leaders be resilient enough to engage Southeast Asia’s leaders and their peoples?
After decades of ambivalence, Australia is no longer shy about approaching Southeast Asia on its own merits. This attitude harks back to the good old days of the Hawke-Keating era, from 1983 to 1996, under the leadership of then Australian prime minister Bob Hawke and his successor Paul Keating.
Bob Hawke’s quick decision during his visit to Thailand in 1989 to fund the first bridge across the mighty lower Mekong River linking Thailand and Laos was considered one of the best foreign policy decisions Canberra ever made with a low price tag. The bridge has now turned land-locked Laos into land-linked Laos and a little tiger, with nearly 10% annual growth. Indeed, the proliferation and prevalence of friendship bridges would come later as a connectivity and logistics tool in this part of the world. It is not wrong to say that three decades ago, Australia captured ASEAN’s two most important priorities: connectivity and bridging the gap between the economies of poor and richer member countries.
With major international shifts today outside Australia’s control and choosing, Canberra realizes that new pragmatic views and policies toward ASEAN are urgently needed. Indeed, of all ASEAN’s 10 dialogue partners, Australia is one of the most active and innovative. After all, then Australian foreign minister Sir Paul Hasluck quickly welcomed ASEAN’s formation, one day after it was founded on Aug 8 1967, which helps explain why Australia has continued to engage with ASEAN throughout their four decades of relations. One thing that has never changed: The stability and prosperity of Southeast Asia is pivotal to Australia’s overall well-being.
ASEAN remembers well those times when Canberra was the key driver of economic and security structures that are still in place today. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and the ASEAN Regional Forum are two of those legacies. Australian diplomacy helped end the 13-year Cambodian conflict and brought Indochina to the economic fore. At the time, ASEAN welcomed Australia, as its leaders showed an authentic desire to act independently for peace and stability in the region without reference to the other great powers.
In retrospect, it could be argued that Australia could have become the first dialogue partner to join ASEAN during the Hawke-Keating time because of the quality and intensity of engagement. Both Mr Hawke and Mr Keating knew that ASEAN was an important part of East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. But the domestic support among both politicians and civilians at the time was weak due to a lack of understanding and awareness of Southeast Asia and its diversity. The situation today is much improved. The common fear that Southeast Asians would cross the Timor Sea and gobble up the Lucky Country has subsided.
ASEAN countries currently host about 860,000 residents from Australia. Only one million Australians out of 24 million have ASEAN ancestry. They have become prominent and enterprising citizens, causing no trouble as many locals had feared. Most of the 100,000 Southeast Asian students in Australia choose to return to their homelands after graduation or internships.
Under Mr Turnbull, Australia now perceives ASEAN as a true strategic partner and a moral force that can shape regional and international politics. Obviously, Canberra could more easily identify with ASEAN after the group adopted the ASEAN Charter in 2008, making it a ruled-based entity. Obviously, there was huge disappointment after the regional grouping failed to come up with a collective position on the verdict of the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the South China Sea conflict two years ago. Australia, the US and Japan, who were at the forefront of the decision, issued a joint statement strongly supporting the verdict, much to the chagrin of ASEAN members.
In the coming months, the crisis in Myanmar’s Rakhine state and political developments in Cambodia will test the ability of Australian policymakers to manage the growing complexity of regional issues. For the time being, Canberra has made the right choice by not following the US and EU on these matters. This kind of strategic patience is necessary when the global situation is filled with uncertainty and wars of attrition. Australia and ASEAN can easily deepen their cooperation to handle other challenges, such as counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, maritime cooperation, human trafficking and disaster management.
When all is said and done, ASEAN will certainly respond in kind to Australia’s genuine assessment of their mutual interests without the meddling of other major powers. It is as clear as the sun always rises in the morning that Australia will be the first dialogue partner to join ASEAN as a full member.
While it is true that there is no consensus within ASEAN to admit Australia, the group’s attitude could easily shift if Australia can develop an authentic voice and truly regional-based ties with ASEAN.
By the time ASEAN-Australian ties reach their 50th year in 2024, Australia could fit snugly in the middle seat of the ASEAN roller coaster.
*Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.
(First published in Bangkok Post – https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1427215/australias-new-strategy-towards-asean)
