THE ART OF WAR á la TRUMP

Posted by AsiaViews | Mar 5, 2018 | 0 |

The global capital markets will roil again this week as world powers are locked and loaded for a trade war. US President Donald Trump is expected to sign an order imposing 25 percent global tariffs on steel and 10 percent on aluminum this week, a move that will almost certainly trigger retaliations from major trading partners.

As the world’s largest steel exporter, China’s response will be less considerate compared to how it treated Trump’s protectionist streak in the past. Following the US’s decision in January of imposing 30 percent tariff on solar panel imports from China, Beijing has retaliated by ordering anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into the import of sorghum and soy from the US. This sends shivers throughout the US farm sector as both commodities are their most valuable exports to China.

At the other side of the Atlantic, EU leaders are fuming. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Friday said the bloc would respond to Trump’s tariffs by targeting iconic American brands such as Harley Davidson Inc. motorcycles, Levi Strauss & Co jeans and bourbon whiskey. Trump responded the next day via his tweet, saying that the US would apply tax on cars imported from the bloc if the EU “further increase their already massive tariffs and barriers.”

However erratic Trump’s tweets might be in the past, his Twitter followers are slowly coming to terms with the realitythat the President may not be bluffing after all. A closer look into Trump’s character reveals that this should not come as a surprise. In his book, The Art of the Deal, Trump has this to say about his enemies: “When people treat me badly or unfairly or try to take advantage of me, my general attitude, all my life, has been to fight back very hard. The risk is you’ll make a bad situation worse … [but] things usually work out for the best in the end.”

So, where does this leave us in Southeast Asia?

In April, Trump signed an executive order that launched a 90-day investigation against 16 countries with which the US runs a bilateral trade deficit. The list of countries included Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. Since then, Vietnam has become the first casualty of this “America first” policy. In August, the US department of commerce slapped anti-dumping duties on fish fillet from Vietnam, causing the country’s seafood exports to the US throughout 2017 fallingby 2.9 per cent year-on-year.

Indonesia came second in February when the US commerce department decided to impose up-to 341 percent import tariff on biodiesel from the country. The ruling effectively makes the US market inaccessible to Indonesian producers. In 2016, US biodiesel imports from Indonesia reached $268 million,according to the commerce department. Indonesia is poised to challenge the ruling at the WTO, which in January ruled against similar anti-dumping measures by the EU onIndonesian biodiesel.

Thailand is likely to be next. US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross initiated new anti-dumping investigations last month against rubber bands from the country as well as those from China and Sri Lanka. In a statement, Ross said his department “will act swiftly” and would ensure that “US business and workers have a fair chance to compete.”

It appears obvious that trade disputes between the US and Southeast Asian countries will escalate. While these disputes will meet their final resolutions at the WTO, Trump risksalienating Southeast Asian countries in the process and bringing them closer to China, both economically and politically. This is particularly problematic for countries that have territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, namely Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. There is a concern among the leaders of these countries that high dependency on Chinese economy could someday back fire as Beijing tend to use its economic leverage to settle differences.

Such a situation will not bode well with the US’s strategic interest of rebalancing China’s hegemony in the region. In the long run, Trump’s art of making trade wars will not, to use his own words, “work out for the best”.

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EXTRICATING NDONESIAN CHILDREN FROM ISIS INFLUENCE ABROAD

Indonesia urgently needs to revisit the possibility of repatriating the neediest of its young citizens stranded abroad, whose families had earlier joined ISIS. Most of these children are in camps in northern Syria but there are also small numbers in the Philippines, Afghanistan and Iraq. “Extricating Indonesian Children from ISIS Influence Abroad”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) argues that the government could begin by bringing back small groups of unaccompanied children under ten years of age, who pose minimal security risk and are most vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in the camps.“The problem is that health and security conditions are worsening by the day in the Syrian camps, and the children are growing older,” says Dyah Kartika, IPAC analyst. “They need access to schools, a nurturing environment, and medical attention. If the government waits too long, the children will be further exposed to ISIS ideology.” The new report examines a 2019 list of Indonesians in camps and prisons run by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Indonesian government has been trying to verify their citizenship, but with pseudonyms, misspellings and bad transliterations, it is a daunting task. At the time the data was collected, between March and June 2019, there were 555 Indonesians in SDF camps and prisons, including 367 children. Among the children, approximately 277 were under the age of ten and 34 were unaccompanied. In June 2021, there are fewer than ten children who are both unaccompanied and under the age of ten that could be prioritized for return. Bringing back children of ISIS families is no easy task. The report analyses the main challenges faced by the Indonesian government. These include definitional issues, bureaucratic competition, the difficulty of verifying nationality, evaluating the toll of exposure to conflict, assessing security risk, and finding relatives or others willing to provide care once the children are returned. In addition, COVID has meant stringent restrictions on travel, placing further obstacles in the way of repatriation. There are several models for rehabilitation of children exposed to violent extremism in Indonesia that could be modified to accommodate the needs of children repatriated from abroad. The report examines these models and argues that the government does not need to have every detail of rehabilitation programs in place before it starts extricating children from ISIS influence. It can start by bringing back the most vulnerable children and then modify programs as needed.

“It’s important that the government see these children as victims” says Dyah. “They deserve a chance to be children again.”

THE ART OF WAR á la TRUMP