ADB: Growth on Track Expected for Laos in 2017-2018

Posted by AsiaViews | Oct 16, 2017 | 0 |

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The Lao People’s Democratic Republic’s (Lao PDR) economic growth is on track to reach 6.9% in 2017 as foreseen in April this year, despite a slightly sluggish growth by 6.8% in the first half of the year. Firm economic growth is expected for 2017 and 2018, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts in its annual flagship economic publication, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2017 Update, released on 26 September 2017. Growth in 2017 is driven mainly by strong electricity exports, the construction of large infrastructure projects, and a surge in cash crop production and exports. The report forecasts 7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2018. “The Lao PDR’s economy is performing well in the Southeast Asian region. The measures taken in 2016 and early 2017, including curtailing spending and boosting private sector investments, appear to further support economic growth,” said Yasushi Negishi, ADB Country Director for the Lao PDR.

The report says the Lao PDR’s ongoing constructions of the cross-border railway project and hydropower projects including the Xayabouri hydropower project, stimulated economic activities, an increased investment in special and specific economic zones by additional 50 companies in the first half of the year, and a surge in cash crop production and exports will drive further economic growth in 2017.

Agriculture saw sturdy growth as rice and cash crops prospered under favorable weather this year. Services experienced slightly lower growth than foreseen in April, after tourist arrivals declined by 9.8% in the first half of 2017. Industry sector remains subdued, despite rising gold exports by 14.5% in the period, continuing slack in international markets held total mining output nearly flat.

The report says the current account deficit forecast is down from its foreseen in April for this year, and it is seen to resume widening in 2018, albeit less than earlier forecast, as imports of machinery, construction materials, and fuel rise to supply the construction of the railway project and seven new hydropower plants.

Net foreign reserves rose from $767 million at the end of 2016 to $887 million at the end of June 2017, providing cover for 1.7 months of imports. The inflation rate forecast for 2017 and 2018 are both down to 1% and 1.5%, respectively, as the current prices for oil and food remain subdued.

Risks to the outlook include a sustained worsening of the international market for mining products, and unexpected slowdown in Thailand and its vital electricity market, and, as always, bad weather affecting agriculture. Vientiane Times.

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EXTRICATING NDONESIAN CHILDREN FROM ISIS INFLUENCE ABROAD

Indonesia urgently needs to revisit the possibility of repatriating the neediest of its young citizens stranded abroad, whose families had earlier joined ISIS. Most of these children are in camps in northern Syria but there are also small numbers in the Philippines, Afghanistan and Iraq. “Extricating Indonesian Children from ISIS Influence Abroad”, the latest report from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) argues that the government could begin by bringing back small groups of unaccompanied children under ten years of age, who pose minimal security risk and are most vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in the camps.“The problem is that health and security conditions are worsening by the day in the Syrian camps, and the children are growing older,” says Dyah Kartika, IPAC analyst. “They need access to schools, a nurturing environment, and medical attention. If the government waits too long, the children will be further exposed to ISIS ideology.” The new report examines a 2019 list of Indonesians in camps and prisons run by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Indonesian government has been trying to verify their citizenship, but with pseudonyms, misspellings and bad transliterations, it is a daunting task. At the time the data was collected, between March and June 2019, there were 555 Indonesians in SDF camps and prisons, including 367 children. Among the children, approximately 277 were under the age of ten and 34 were unaccompanied. In June 2021, there are fewer than ten children who are both unaccompanied and under the age of ten that could be prioritized for return. Bringing back children of ISIS families is no easy task. The report analyses the main challenges faced by the Indonesian government. These include definitional issues, bureaucratic competition, the difficulty of verifying nationality, evaluating the toll of exposure to conflict, assessing security risk, and finding relatives or others willing to provide care once the children are returned. In addition, COVID has meant stringent restrictions on travel, placing further obstacles in the way of repatriation. There are several models for rehabilitation of children exposed to violent extremism in Indonesia that could be modified to accommodate the needs of children repatriated from abroad. The report examines these models and argues that the government does not need to have every detail of rehabilitation programs in place before it starts extricating children from ISIS influence. It can start by bringing back the most vulnerable children and then modify programs as needed.

“It’s important that the government see these children as victims” says Dyah. “They deserve a chance to be children again.”

ADB: Growth on Track Expected for Laos in 2017-2018